The Sledgehammer & The Toll Booth
Eighteen months ago, I called the Province’s Transit-Oriented Area legislation, “urban planning with a sledgehammer.” I was being generous. Hastily planned transit densification with no overarching contextual considerations; mandated, enforceable, and extremely political.
Within a single week this October, British Columbians will vote twice: municipal elections on October 17, and a snap provincial election on October 24. Four years of council terms and the province’s housing record will go to the ballot box together. From municipal fees soaring to new heights, to flip-flopping provincial housing policy, the development and construction industry, together with real estate has been targeted and villainized, yet contributes roughly a quarter of BC’s economy? Voters should be asking a simple question at the polls: Can we afford four more years down this destructive path?
When David Eby’s NDP passed its TOA legislation, it promised up to 100,000 new homes near transit. What it delivered was a vacuum. The province set the heights and densities, then handed everything that actually determines whether a project gets built to the municipalities: the zoning details, the timelines and, most importantly, the fees. Then everyone waited. Landowners waited for OCP updates. Developers waited for ACC bylaws. Lenders waited for numbers they could underwrite. You cannot price land, let alone a project, when the cost of building it hasn’t been written yet.
When the numbers finally arrived, too many municipalities treated the DCC and ACC charge as a License to Fee. Burnaby and Coquitlam lead the way: once shining leaders in new housing, now starved of new development. A typical six-storey wood-frame project, with an average unit size of 750 square feet (and by nature more affordable for its end user than a concrete tower), now carries combined DCC and ACC fees in excess of $38,000 per unit. This is before Metro Vancouver and TransLink take their share. The ill-conceived density the province mandated has been hijacked and stacked with fees to fund every item on the city hall wish list or, in some cases, to stall development altogether.
The result is the irony of the decade: no growth, no new development and no fees. Condo starts fell another 40% in the first half of 2026, the weakest start since 2011. A charge levied on a building that never breaks ground collects exactly nothing. Meanwhile, foreclosures are mounting, sites sit idle while interest accrues, sales and projections are a shadow of their former selves, and once-reliable institutional investors are looking East for greener pastures.
The broader economy offers little cover. The Bank of Canada is holding at 2.25%, inflation sits at 3.0%, and Canada shed 68,000 jobs in September. Buyers are cautious, presales are stalled, and the margin for layered government costs is gone. My ask of every candidate, on both ballots, is the same. Stop treating the people who build homes as the problem. Stop adding new cost layers. Test every charge against today’s economics, not yesterday’s prices. Give the industry the certainty it needs to put shovels in the ground.
This year London Pacific celebrates 40 years in business. We have seen many cycles, and the lesson of each one is that this region rewards those who take a disciplined, long-term view.
Ever the optimist, I remain confident: Metro Vancouver will be ok, but not without good governance, and common-sense doors open policy.
–BEN WILLIAMS, Executive Vice President, London Pacific
INTEREST RATES
The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark policy interest rate at 2.25% through the Third Quarter of 2026. Energy prices and trade/tariff uncertainties continue to plague the outlook. RBC’s September 29th Data Flash stated “Our base case remains for the Bank to hold interest rates through the end of 2026 before gradually raising them in 2027.”
The next BoC interest Rate Announcement is scheduled for October 28, 2026.
Source: RBC
INFLATION
Canada’s annual headline inflation rate held steady at 3.0% at the close of Q3 2026, driven largely by geopolitical disruptions and volatile fuel costs. According to the latest data from Statistics Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged in August, matching market expectations but hovering above
the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
Source: Stats Can
GDP
Canada’s Q3 GDP growth is tracking at a slower annualized pace of roughly 1.5% to 2% following a reported stronger Q2. There was a 1.3 per cent gain for the construction sector in July, which marked its fourth consecutive month of growth after declines in late 2025 and early 2026. Non-residential building construction saw its best month since the start of 2022, StatCan said, owing primarily to activity around a new hospital building in Toronto.
Source: Global
LABOUR MARKET
Canada’s labour market showed further signs of weakness in September, shedding 68,000 jobs following a loss of 42,000 positions in August. The second consecutive monthly decline brought the unemployment rate up slightly to 6.5% mirroring levels seen at the beginning of 2026.
Source: CBC
METRO VANCOUVER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
GVR reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,717 in September 2026, an 8.4 per cent decrease from the 1,875 sales
recorded in September 2025. This was 25 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,289).
“While sales were down about eight per cent overall in September, this figure hides the fact the weakness is contained to the sizeable apartment segment, which typically accounted for half of sales in any given month in recent years,” Andrew Lis, GVR chief economist
Source: GVRealtors
BC HOUSING MARKET
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 6.5 per cent to $43.26 billion, compared with the same period in 2025. residential unit sales are down 5.5 per cent year-over-year at 46,069 units, while the average MLS® residential price is down 1 per cent to $939,028.
“Provincial home sales remain well below long-term averages but have been steadily improving throughout the year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect a gradual recovery in sales to continue, though new tariffs and a recent spike in longterm interest rates add a layer of risk to that scenario.”
Source: BCREA
PROVINCIAL ELECTION INFORMATION
Advanced Voting: October 16th – 21st 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Vote on Final Voting Day: October 24th 8:00 am to 8:00 pm
Vote By Mail: elections.bc.ca/votebymail or call 1.800.661.8683
For information on ways to vote and for a list of electoral offices please visit: https://elections.bc.ca/2026-provincial-election/ways-to-vote/
Please download the FULL REPORT above
