EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As we move through the First Quarter of 2026, the Canadian economy continues to reflect a period of measured adjustment, with inflation reading stable and interest rates holding steady while the Bank of Canada looks to fortify the economy against international market swings driven by war and political chaos. While GDP growth has remained subdued, the economy is showing resilience in key sectors, reinforcing the view that we are navigating a normalization phase rather than a downturn.
It is especially meaningful to share this report alongside our BCIT student contributors, who represent the next generation of industry professionals. Through our conversations, we explore not only current market conditions, but also the realities of building a career in real estate; how to navigate uncertainty, assess opportunities and think critically about long term value creation.
As we look ahead, we remain confident that Metro Vancouver will continue to offer stsrong long-term fundamentals, and that this period of adjustment will create opportunities for well-positioned investors to act with clear vision and conviction.
– KEATH WILLIAMS, Managing Broker & Principal, London Pacific
INTEREST RATES
The Bank of Canada overnight rate holds at 2.25% as of the last decision made on March 18. 2026. While inflation appears to be near target (~2%), the BOC remains cautious due to: weak growth, rising unemployment and global uncertainty.
Economists anticipate that the BoC will maintain the 2.25% rate at the next scheduled announcement: April 29, 2026.
Source: Bank of Canada
INFLATION
Overall Q1 has showed a slow but overall decline in inflation with early estimates indicating inflation will better the BOC 2% target at ~1.8% for March 2026.
At the onset of the new year, slowing shelter costs and energy prices (specifically low gas prices) were a major drivers of this trend. Now, with the onset of conflict in the Middle East, Canadians are experiencing rocketing gas prices and a $10/barrel increase in oil can add roughly +0.2 percentage points to inflation.
Source: Stats Can
GDP
Early indicators suggest numbers on Canada’s economy for Q1 will demonstrate close to zero growth with some data suggesting even a mild contraction.
There are a few bright spots in a handful of sectors. Potash was a strong driver in the mining sector while construction nationwide held steady thanks to activity and projects. The retail sector was surprisingly resilient despite cost of living pressures with general merchandise +3% and auto dealer sales up +2.4% in January.
Source: Stats Can
LABOUR MARKET
The Canadian labour market is said to be “cooling but not collapsing” with the unemploment rate for January posted at 6.5%, February 6.7% and March looking to be holding at ~6.7%.
Negative growth in full-time job opportunity is of concern and a decline specifically in youth employment indicates that full time job opportunities for new graduates are slimming.
Source: Moving2Canada
METRO VANCOUVER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
GVR reports that residential sales in the region totalled 2,032 in March 2026. This is a 2.8% decrease from 2025 and is 31.8% below the 10 year seasonal average.
“While the multifamily segment continues to see slower sales, the detached segment may be awakening with sales up, and new listings down from last year.”– Andrew Lis, GVR Chief Economist.
Source: GVRealtors
BC HOUSING MARKET
BC housing market activity remained weak through early 2026, with sales well below historical norms and declining across all regions. February sales were down roughly 10% year-over-year and were down over 30% below the 10-year average.
With this subdued demand, home prices are also softening down 2–3% year-over-year. Overall sales dollar volume declined, reflecting this lower activity and pricing.
Source: BCREA
COMMERCIAL SALES
The retail sector showed moderate strength with retail investment up ~31% year over year demonstrating a continued demand for income-generating, stable assets.
The multifamily investment sector experienced some weakening down ~20% year over year with significant declines in key regions such as Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.
The industrial sector has shifted away from peak demand with volume down ~24% year over year.
Office investment rose sharply year-over-year (+92%), largely reflecting a rebound from a weak prior year and a small number of select / large transactions.
The land sector was still under significant pressure at the end of 2025 underlining developer caution, financing constraints and uncertain project economics.
Source: ALTUS
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