Q2 | 2023 Market INSIGHT

INTEREST RATES

Canada’s Overnight Rate climbed steadily to 4.50%; a level not seen since November 2007. With short-term rates rapidly and artificially propped up, Canada’s yield curve has become inverted over the past several quarters, indicating a very likely upcoming policy-induced recession.

Source: Impact Commercial

INFLATION

Inflation is trending down overall, but it remains elevated for services. With vacation season here, a tight labour market and a stronger than anticipated economy, the Bank of Canada could implement an additional rate hike to limit spending on services.

Source: CPA Canada

GDP

Bottom line: Canadian GDP remained resilient in Q2. But growth is starting to look weaker by the end of the quarter – wholesale sales posted one of the largest declines in history in June. The resilience in consumer demand we’ve seen to-date is not to be overlooked, adding to sticky inflation pressures.

Source: RBC

THE HOUSING MARKET

The Canadian housing market experienced a “huge” second quarter (Q2), surpassing expectations with soaring home sales and average prices. However, economists at TD Economics are cautioning for a potential decline in sales during the latter half of 2023, which could reverse part of the market’s recent strength.

Source: Real Estate Magazine

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