EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This edition of London Pacific’s Quarterly Market Update takes a sober look at 2025. As year-to-date metrics and sales stats are finalized, the reality of where our market sits cannot be avoided. Residential sales in Metro Vancouver for 2025 were 24.7 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (31,625), marking the lowest annual sales total in over twenty years.
Moving forward … the year ahead marks a phase for incremental positive adjustments and as borrowing costs continue to ease we will see Buyers take advantage of the surplus of high-quality investment opportunities in this region. There is no doubt that the long-term appeal of Metro Vancouver’s commercial real estate to investors remains intact.
In extending our value-add network to our clientele we are excited to have Impact Commercial contribute to this Quarterly with a Snapshot on the Commercial Debt Market. Offering a wide range of services from land and construction financing; to CMHC financing for multifamily rental investors and developers; to commercial mortgages for investors in all commercial asset classes, and owner-users of industrial, retail and office properties please may I introduce: Michael Mullen, Matthew Dunnigan, and Shania Bakhtiani.
Special recognition to Lucas Chavez and Joe Hawboldt on their promotion to Associate. We look forward to watching your careers in commercial real estate and our proud to support your trajectory as part of the London Pacific Team.
Please download the FULL REPORT above
– ERIN WILLIAMS, Director of Business Development
INTEREST RATES
Here is a quick summary of the interest rate announcements/changes that BOC made in 2025: January 29: Decreased to 3.00%, March 12: Decreased to 2.75%, April 16: Maintained at 2.75%, June 4: Maintained at 2.75%, July 30: Maintained at 2.75%, September 17: Decreased to 2.50%, October 29: Decreased to 2.25%, December 10: Maintained at 2.25%.
Economists anticipate that the BoC will maintain the 2.25% rate into the first few months of 2026. The next scheduled announcement was for January 28, 2026, where the BoC would provide further guidance.
Source: Bank of Canada
INFLATION
Statistics Canada reported on November inflation numbers (on December 15, 2025) stating that overall, the inflation rate came in at 2.2 per cent. “Canada’s annual inflation rate was unchanged in November, but grocery inflation reached its highest rate in nearly two years.” The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, which exclude volatile components such as food and gas, eased or stayed flat in November.
Source: CBC news
METRO VANCOUVER RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
GVR reports that total residential real estate sales in Metro Vancouver for 2025 were 24.7 per cent below the 10-year annual sales average (31,625), marking the lowest annual sales total in over twenty years. The sales to new listings ratio at 1 to 3, has new listings reaching a historical peak as more than 99,000 homes were brought to market.
Source: GVRealtors
METRO VANCOUVER COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Q3 2025 Stats for commercial transactions are just being published and indicate a contraction of 23% year-over-year. Retail led the charge transacting more than $1.1 billion, office remained steadfast and multifamily remained “cautiously optimistic” while land and industrial sectors continued to experience substantial investment pullbacks. 2025 marked the lowest number of new project launches in fifteen years with fewer than 100 new project coming to market.
Source: ALTUS
SPECULATION & VACANCY TAX
On December 1, the Province announced changes to the Speculation and Vacancy Tax for 2026 with the intention to curb market speculation. Changes include:
- Canadian citizens and permanent residents with empty or underused homes will pay a rate of 1%, up from 0.5%;
- Foreign owners and owners with most of their income unreported in Canada will be subject to a tax rate of 3% starting in the 2026 tax year, up from 2%;
- The tax credit for BC residents will be increased from $2,000 to $4,000. The SVT tax credits are available to those who do not qualify for more than 20 exemptions from the tax.
Source: UDI
